golos_dobra (golos_dobra) wrote,
golos_dobra
golos_dobra

заслуженный нобель

https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d20/d2084.pdf

Evolution of Modeling of the Economics of Global Warming: Changes in the DICE model, 1992 – 2017
William Nordhaus
March 9, 2017

A difficulty in assessing IAMs is the inability to use standard statistical tests because of the lack of a probabilistic structure.

inability to use standard statistical tests because of the lack of a probabilistic structure.
inability to use standard statistical tests because of the lack of a probabilistic structure.
inability to use standard statistical tests because of the lack of a probabilistic structure.

It is clear that the mechanism underlying productivity growth is non-stationary, which makes forecasting extremely difficult.

which makes forecasting extremely difficult
which makes forecasting extremely difficult
which makes forecasting extremely difficult

The major revision in the 2100 outlook for output was a change from the stagnationist view of global growth in the 1980s and 1990s to a view of continued rapid growth today.

As a result of these two changes, projected 2100 output per capita was revised upward by a factor of 3 1⁄2 over the period. This major upward revision drove all economic variables, including damages and the social cost of capital.

Perhaps the most dramatic revision has been the social cost of carbon (SCC). The SCC for 2015 has been revised upwards from $5 to $31 per ton of CO2 over the last quarter-century

revised upwards from $5 to $31 per ton
revised upwards from $5 to $31 per ton
revised upwards from $5 to $31 per ton

The stability of the environmental variables largely reflects that these were relatively well- understood by the early 1990s, and therefore modeling of these components within IAMs
could be based on a solid scientific foundation.

on a solid scientific foundation
on a solid scientific foundation
on a solid scientific foundation

+++



Комментариев никаких не будет, дабы не выносить мусор
и не тревожить память до поры мемуаров.
Если на все предыдущие события жизни можно условно отвести три тома
типа сочинений Дюма, то только этот один, экономико-климатический последний
проект жизни займет минимум три тома сам по себе, по богатству коллизий и
пертурбаций.

С одной стороны посмотреть полный провал проекту и всем
связанных с ним лицам вне зависимости от заслуг вышел, с другой же...
но об этом только в мемуарах, больши нигде.
Subscribe
  • Post a new comment

    Error

    Anonymous comments are disabled in this journal

    default userpic
  • 1 comment